Political Campaign Planning by Vinod Narbar
A basic guide for Political Campaigner , how to start and plan Political campaign.
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Transcripts - Political Campaign Planning by Vinod Narbar
• ELECTION RULES
• THE CONSTITUENCY
• THE VOTERS
• PAST ELECTIONS
• THIS ELECTION
• OUR CANDIDATE
• VIABLE OPPONENTS
• First determine the type of election in which you will be
running and what will be the rules of the election.
• Much of the basic strategy depends on this
– Is this a legislative office you are seeking or an executive
– Do you need a majority of the votes to win or a plurality?
– Will there be a runoff election?
• You should definitely research the laws and, if they
are complicated, you may want to ask your political
party or a lawyer to draft a memo outlining the most
important points. Missing a deadline or violating some
part of the law could end your campaign before it has
• Once you have determined the basic election rules, you should
start to gather as much information on the constituency and the
voters as possible.
– How large is the constituency in which you will be running?
– What type of terrain will you have to cover as you campaign?
– What type of transportation will you and the voters need to use?
– How has the population of the district changed recently?
• You need to understand the political landscape in which you will
– Who are the important political players in the area?
– How strong are the various political parties in the area?
– Who are the civic and business leaders that can influence the campaign?
• Winning the support of a particularly influential leader in the
community can often make the campaign much easier.
• You also must understand how voters get their
– What are the local media outlets?
– Who are the reporters and what are their deadlines?
– How will the election be covered and how does the press
view the various candidates?
• To develop a comprehensive press strategy, it is
important to have as much information on the
media as possible.
You will need to break the voters in your district
into manageable groups. This is the basis you will
later use to develop a strategy for targeting
• The following are some of the questions you may want
– Is there a voter file or accurate list of all possible voters
available to the campaign?
– What support is there for various political parties?
– What is the demographic composition of the voters?
– For example, what are the income levels, education levels,
professions, ethnic backgrounds, religious backgrounds, age,
– Where do people work, shop and play?
– What is the geographic break down of the voters?
– What percentage or how many people live in the city, in the
rural areas or in small villages?
– Do the voters live in single-family homes or apartments?
– How would you describe your supporters and those voters you
hope to persuade?
• Voters with similar characteristics may have
similar interests and may tend to vote the same
way. Seniors will be less interested in schools and
more interested in pensions while young mothers
will be more interested in schools and less
interested in pensions. By determining how many
senior citizens there are and how many young
mothers there are, you will be better able to target
your message to groups that matter to your
• Often you can gain valuable information about this
election by looking at information from past elections.
– Who ran for this position in your district in past elections and
what were the results?
– How many voters turned out for similar elections in the past?
How many votes were needed to win?
• You may be able to use this type of information to
predict the turnout and baseline levels of support in
– How did candidates with similar backgrounds and messages
fair in past elections?
• You will want this type of information later when you
determine what worked for them and what you will
have to do differently to do better than they did.
Next you should look at the factors that will affect
this election, namely the various issues that
concern voters and other political campaigns,
which are being waged in the area.
◦ What local, regional or national issues are important to
◦ What will motivate voters to go to the polls?
◦ How would you describe the voter mood?
– What other races will be on the same ballot?
– Will candidates in other races help or hurt your
– Is there the opportunity to work with other campaigns in a
– What effect will other campaigns have on the election?
– Your relationship with your party and other candidates on
the same ticket will affect your strategy.
– Your campaign's message should complement, or at
least not contradict, the other messages.
• The most important factor in your election will be
the candidate. During your strategic planning
session, you should honestly and candidly judge
the strengths and weaknesses of your candidate.
As you do this exercise, you should also look at
your candidate from the point of view of your
opponent. What you may view as a fresh new face
with new ideas, your opponent may view as a lack
• You may want to organize your assessment into
various sections, such as the candidate's childhood,
education, work history, immediate family, and past
• It is important to look for both strengths and
weaknesses in all of these areas. By finding
weaknesses early, the campaign will be better
prepared to deal with them and respond to charges
that may come up later in the campaign. Too many
candidates have lost because they refused to deal
with past mistakes and were caught off guard when
their opponents painted the picture of their mistakes in
a very unflattering light.
Once you have determined your own candidate's
strengths and weaknesses, the next logical step is
to repeat the process for your opponents'. If you
are facing several opponents, you should
determine which are your strongest competitors
for the loyalty of voters you hope to attract. Again,
you can organize your assessment into various
sections and look for both strengths and
Your opponents will not be forthcoming with
information about themselves. You will probably
need to do some digging to find reasons for voters
to vote against them and for your candidate.
• Too often candidates and campaigns view opposition
research as looking for the one scandal that will finish
off their opponent's campaign. This may happen, but
more often what you find is patterns of behavior that
you can use to persuade voters to either vote against
your opponent or for you. You will use this to create a
contrast between your candidate and campaign and
your opponents' campaign when you develop your
message, but this process is the basis for finding that
• The other mistake campaigns often make, is
saying that they do not want to wage a negative
campaign. Researching your opponent and
waging a negative campaign are two entirely
different things. By not taking the time and doing
the hard work of opposition research, you forfeit
the ability to be prepared for what your opponent
will say and do and to build the contrast between
yourself and your opponent.
• As you gather your opposition research, you must be
extremely well organized: list the sources of your
documentation, and have a system in place that will
allow you to quickly access the information. It will do
no good to know something and not be able to provide
backup of the information. All of this research should
be gathered together in a binder for easy referral and
referenced for easy tracking. Being meticulous and
organized now will save a lot of time and energy later.
• WHAT IS THE TOTAL POPULATION OF THE
• WHAT IS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF VOTERS
• WHAT IS THE EXPECTED TURNOUT
• HOW MANY VOTES ARE NEEDED TO WIN
• HOW MANY HOUSEHOLDS DO THESE
VOTERS LIVE IN
• BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER
• The ultimate goal of almost every political campaign is to win
elected office. What you need to do here is determine what
must be done to achieve that victory. Too often campaigns
forget to calculate how many votes will be needed to
guarantee victory and determining where these votes will
come from. They then spend their precious resources of time,
money and people trying to talk to the whole population
instead of the much fewer voters they will need to win. Here
you will reduce the number of voters with whom you need to
communicate to a much more manageable size. As part of
your research, you should determine the total population of
your district, the total number of voters, the expected votes
cast, the number of votes needed to win and the number of
households in which these voters live.
Some of the answers that are needed here require
you to look into the future and make some
educated guesses. Use your best judgment and
the information you have found from past
"Total population" is all the people who live in your
district. Considering children too young to vote
and people not registered in the district, this
number should be larger than the total number of
"Total number of voters" is all the voters in the
district who are eligible to vote and can possibly
vote in this election.
• "Expected turnout " is the expected votes cast in this
election. Not every voter will vote. Often you can
determine how many voters will vote by looking at past
similar elections. If there was 35% turn out in the last
city election and there are no added factors this time
to change the situation, you might figure that about
35% would vote in the city election this time. If on the
other hand, there was a 55% turn out in the
presidential election and this time the city election is
combined with the presidential election, you may want
to estimate that 55% will turn out this time.
• This is a very speculative number. What you are
looking for is the total number of votes needed to
guarantee victory in your race. If you need a majority
of the votes to win, this would be 50% of turnout plus
one vote. In many cases you only need a plurality of
the votes cast or more votes for your candidate than
any other candidate in the race receives. In the case
of multi-candidate races, you may be able to win with
35%, 30%, 25% or less of the vote. It is important to
convert this percentage to a real number. How many
actual votes will guarantee your victory? You should
be conservative and error on the side of too many
votes rather than too few.
• You can reduce this group yet again. On average, let
us say that there are two voters per household. Some
families may have three or four voters living in the
same house. Some voters may be single and live
alone. Now, if you think that a husband and wife are
likely to vote the same way, you can often assume
that if you talk to one member of the family, than you
can expect to get the second vote. So, how many
households will you need to communicate with to
receive the number of votes needed to win?
• How does all this come together? Let us say that your
district has a population of 130,000 people. Of this
population, there are 30,000 children below voting age
and other non-registered voters, leaving a total
number of 100,000 voters. In the last city election,
there was 50% turnout of voters, or 50,000 votes cast.
You assume it will be the same this time. In a multi-
candidate race for city council, the winning candidate
received 34% of the vote or 17,000 votes cast. If you
figure an average of two voters per household, this
would come to 8,500 households.
• Now, you cannot assume that every voter you talk with
will be persuaded to vote for you. So you should figure
to communicating with a larger number of voters in
order to receive the votes from 17,000 voters or 8,500
households. Suppose you persuade seven out of
every 10 voters you communicate with to vote for you.
You will need to talk to 25,000 voters or 13,000
households in order to be assured of support from
17,000 voters or 8,500 households (25,000 x 0.7 =
17,500 and 13,000 x 0.7 = 9,100).
It is still a lot easier to talk with and try to persuade
13,000 families than it is to talk to and try and
persuade 100,000 people. This whole process is
narrowing the group of people you need to
persuade down to a much smaller size.
• Using your research information and your best judgment,
answer the following questions and incorporate the answers
into your written campaign plan:
• 1. How many people (not just voters) live in your district?
• 2. How many of these people are able to vote in this election?
• 3. What percentage of these voters do you expect to vote in
• 4. How many expected voters is this in real numbers?
• 5. How many candidates will be running for this position?
• 6. How many of these candidates could be considered
• If the election were held today, what percentage of the vote do
you think each candidate would receive?
• 8. What percentage of the votes cast will be needed to win?
• 9. How many votes cast in real numbers are needed to win?
• 10. On average, how many voters live in one household?
• 11. Do these voters living in the same household all tend to vote
for the same candidate?
• 12. If they do tend to vote for the same candidate, how many
households will you need to receive the support of to guarantee
• 13. If you talk to ten average voters, how many can you
persuade to vote for you?
• 14. How many households will you need to communicate with for
your message to reach enough voters to achieve victory?
• WHAT IS TARGETING
• WHY TARGET VOTERS
– CONSERVING CAMPAIGN RESOURCES
– PERSUADING TARGET VOTERS
• HOW TO TARGET VOTERS
– GEOGRAPHIC TARGETING
– DEMOGRAPHIC TARGETING
• Our Demographic Groups
• Their Demographic Groups
• PROBLEMS WITH TARGETING
• BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER
• VOTER ANALYSIS
• LEADERSHIP QUALITIES
• Once you decide how many votes you need to win
and, therefore how many voters you need to persuade
to support your candidate, you need to determine what
makes these voters different from other voters who will
not support your candidate. This process is called
"targeting the voters" or simply "targeting." The point
of targeting is to determine which subsets of the voting
population are most likely to be responsive to your
candidate and focusing your campaign efforts on
these groups of voters.
Targeting is important for two reasons.
◦ First, you want to conserve those precious campaign
resources of time, money and people, and
◦ second, you want to develop a message that will best
persuade those voters you still need to convince to vote
• If you develop literature for everyone in the district and
try to shake the hand of every voter in the district, then
you are wasting a lot of money and a lot of time on
people who will not vote for you no matter what you
say or do.
• If, on the other hand, you can identify a smaller but
significant group of voters who will most likely be
persuaded by your campaign message. You will then
be able concentrate your efforts on them and you will
have more resources to repeat your message over
and over again, until it seems that they have no choice
but to vote for your candidate.
• Suppose, for example, that you decide that you need
to communicate with 33% of the voters to win. If you
could identify exactly which voters were most likely to
deliver that 33%, then your campaign could reach
them with one-third of the resources that you would
need for an untargeted campaign. Put another way, if
your campaign had the resources to reach every voter
in the district one time, you could instead target your
efforts to reach your most likely supporters three
• Candidates that do not take the time to target their
voters have lost the right to complain about scarce
• You need to determine whom the best audience for
that message will be. This will help you determine
what you can say that is likely to persuade them.
• An important rule to remember is that as a party or
candidate tries to reach a broader and broader
audience, then that party's or candidate's message
becomes defused and weaker for each part of that
audience. Ultimately, the party or candidate that
promises everything to everybody has an empty
message that no voter will find credible or compelling.
• The goal of targeting, therefore, should be to
focus your campaign effort on a range of voters
that can deliver approximately the same number
of votes that you set as your campaign goal in
Step Two. If your target audience is too narrow,
you will not attract enough votes to win. If your
target audience is too broad, your message will
become diffused, and candidates with better focus
will steal parts of the message - and the electorate
- from you.
• Generally speaking, there are three types of voters: your
supporters, your opponents' supporters and those voters in
the middle who have yet to make up their minds. Your
supporters are those who have already decided to vote for
you. Your opponents' supporters are those who have
already decided to vote for your opponents. Those voters
in the middle who have not yet decided and still need to be
persuaded to vote for one or the other candidates are
called persuadable voters. It is some portion of these
persuadable voters whom you want to target and with
whom you want to communicate your message.
Remember that a political campaign is a communication
Once you have determined that you need to
persuade only about half of the electorate or less
to vote for your candidate, you need to figure out
what makes your potential voters different from
the others. There are two ways to determine this:
geographic targeting and demographic targeting.
Most campaigns will use some combination of
• Geographic targeting is simply determining who will
vote for your candidate based on where they live. For
example, let us say that candidate "A" lives in town "A"
and is well known and liked by her neighbors.
Candidate "B" lives in town "B" and is well known and
liked by his neighbors. Most of candidate "A's"
supporters are going to come from town "A" and she
needs to go to town "C" to persuade those residents
who are not already committed to a candidate in the
race that she is the best candidate. She would be
foolish and wasting her time to go to town "B" and try
to persuade those residents and neighbors of
candidate "B" to vote for her.
This is a very simple example, though there are
elections where the targeting is that easy. More
often the campaign will have to look at past
elections to determine past performance, the
persuadability of the voters and the expected
turnout. This can best be done where data can be
obtained for past elections down to the precinct
• Past performance is the percentage of votes that your
candidate, your party or a similar candidate received
in past elections. Precincts with high performance
contain your most likely supporters. In theory, a
campaign should not spend resources on very high-
performance precincts; after all, it makes little sense to
try to persuade voters who will already vote for you.
However, most candidates should some spend
resources in areas with a history of voting for
democratic candidates and parties in order to solidify
their base of support before reaching out to other
• The persuadability of voters is the percentage of
voters in a precinct that do not vote in a consistent
way. It is the difference in percentage of votes for
similar candidates either in the same election or
two consecutive elections. Voters either "split"
their vote (vote for candidates of different
orientations in the same election) or "shift" their
vote (vote for candidates of different orientations
over the course of two or more elections).
In a U.S context, "vote splitting" districts would be
districts that voted for Democrat Bill Clinton for
President and a Republican member of Congress
in the same election. In a Russian context, "vote
shifting" districts would be districts that voted for a
Communist member of the Duma and then voted
for President Yeltsin in the next election less than
one year later.
• It is generally considered that "vote splitters" and the
"vote shifters" are the voters most likely to be
persuaded by a campaign's efforts. Because of this,
most campaigns spend the majority of their effort -
posters, door to door, etc. - in precincts with high
persuadability. This strategy makes sense.
• Expected turnout can be determined by the
percentage of voters who turned out in the most
recent similar election. It makes no sense to spend
campaign resources on people who will not vote, so
your campaign should spend more resources on
precincts with a history of higher turnout.
Demographic targeting is splitting the voting
population into various groups or subsets of the
population. These groups can be based on age,
gender, income, level of education, occupation,
ethnic background or any other distinct grouping.
The point of breaking the population down like this
is that similar people are likely to have similar
concerns and vote for the same candidate.
• We can then mix groups into cross-sets or break them
down further into subsets of subsets. For example,
breaking the population down by gender may give you
roughly 50% of population for men and for women (do
not assume this is always the case). Working women
would be a smaller subset of women. Working women
with children would be an even smaller subset of
working women. Working women with children are
likely to have very particular concerns about childcare
that, if your candidate addresses, is liable to persuade
a large percentage of them to vote for you.
The trick here is for the group not to be so small
as to be insignificant. Left-handed concert violin
players have specific concerns as well (they are
constantly jostled by right handed concert violin
players), but winning both of their votes will not
move you much closer toward victory.
• Often when determining which groups will be persuaded to
vote for a candidate, you should look for groups to which
the candidate belongs. Say the candidate is a 38-year-old,
college educated small businessman, married with a son
and a daughter in school, living in the largest city in the
district. His target groups are going to be young people
between the ages of 25 and 40, small business people,
and parents with school age children. He is less likely to
appeal to groups of the voting population to which he does
not belong. He will have less appeal to pensioners,
workers with less education, and farmers from the rural
part of the district. If there are enough votes in his target
groups to win and he is the best candidate to appeal to
these voters, then he need only to communicate a
persuadable message to this group throughout the
campaign to win.
• There are two things that can make this targeting less likely
to work. First, the demographic groups he chooses are too
small. Second, there are other candidates with similar
backgrounds who are appealing to the same group. In both
cases, if another candidate is also appealing to this same
group or it is not a large enough part of the population to
provide the margin of victory, then the campaign needs to
look to collateral groups or those groups nearest in
interests for further support. In the above example he may
want to expand his message to include people with a
higher education (usually professionals). He would want to
broaden his message to appeal to teachers and doctors,
which may work nicely with his message to parents with
school age children.
• The point of all of this is to do the math and figure out
how many voters in a particular group can be
expected to vote for the candidate if they hear a
message that addresses their concerns. You shouldn't
expect to win 100% of the vote of any population but
if, with a little effort, you can expect to receive 6 or 7
out of every 10 votes caste, than this is a group of
voters with whom you should be in touch.
• You will not be able to come up with very precise
numbers for these groups (politics, after all, is an art,
not a science). However, going through this exercise
and determining numbers for your subsets and cross-
sets will help you determine whether your targeting
strategy is realistic or not.
An important part of demographic targeting is
determining which demographic groups will not be
part of your targeted audience. During your
strategic planning session you should, for
example, state explicitly "we will not target
government workers" or "we will not target young
entrepreneurs." This exercise will help you avoid
the trap of defining too wide a targeted audience.
• Again, demographic targeting is not a precise
science; even in the best of circumstances,
definitions of demographic subsets are fuzzy and
overlap with one another. They can be made more
difficult by three factors:
• 1. A large number of candidates in each race,
which forces candidates to consider groups from
which they will receive much less than half the
• 2. The lack of available, accurate demographic
• 3. The undeveloped self-identification of individuals as having
specific interests based on their demographic characteristics.
• Nevertheless, it is important to do this exercise and look at these
issues. Many candidates in the past have lost largely due to a
failure to define a target audience. Candidates, when asked to
identify their audience tended to respond either 1) by naming
every demographic subset imaginable, or 2) by saying, for
example, "I represent the intelligentsia." In the first instance, they
had no target audience because their target audience was
everybody. In the second, their target audience was simply too
small to bring them victory (the intelligentsia is a relatively minor
part of the voting population and is, moreover, claimed by
virtually every democratically oriented party).
• Box A: People who are most likely to vote and are most likely
to support you are your base of support. You should, first of
all, plan activities to solidify this support.
• Box B: Likely voters who are potential supporters are your
number one target for your persuasion efforts. Spare no effort
on these voters.
• Box C: Do not spend too much time on people who aren't
likely to support you. In fact, your activities may make it more
likely that they will go to the polls and vote for your
• Box D: Likely supporters who are only potential voters must
be persuaded to vote. Target these people with motivational
messages and a strong Election Day push to make sure as
many of them as possible vote.
• Box E: Potential voters and supporters are important
but not crucial. Focus on them only after you've
communicated with Boxes A and B.
• Box G: Possible target for motivational efforts. But do
not spend scarce campaign resources here until
you've thoroughly covered the boxes above or if you
need these votes to win. Your time, money and people
would be better spent above.
• Boxes F, H, and I: Do not waste efforts on these
Having determined a target audience for your
campaign, you should make an effort to
understand the members of this target audience
thoroughly. The four areas you should analyze are
values, attitudes, issues and desire for leadership