India’s population size, growth and...
Population and development
Time lag between Kerala and other states in selected demographic parameters in 2002
Population and development
been hovering around 70-80 during the past
decade but has started another decline since
1998. ...
Population and development
India was the first country to launch an offi-
cial programme of family planning as early as
Population and development
Trends in human development
State / India 1981 1981 1991 1991 2001 2001
Value Rank V...
Population and development
(NS DP), female literacy rate and the HDI val-
ues for the years 2001 or 2002 for which lates...
Population and development
Ranking of states on selected demographic indicators, circa 2002
5° ‘59...
Population and development
This analysis reveals that there is a close cor-
respondence between increase in female litera...
of 8

Population india

A large population in India, development lags, demographic transition is not yet.
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Published in: Presentations & Public Speaking      

Transcripts - Population india

  • 1. POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA SINCE INDEPENDENCE: AN OVERVIEW K. SRINIVASAN India’s population size, growth and disparities India’s population crossed the one billion mark by the second half of 1999 and according to the census of 200 1 its population was 1026.44 mil- lion. At the beginning of 2005 it is estimated at 1095.55 million. India has joined the bil- lionaire league in population along with China and these two countries are likely to be the only two billionaires in population size. In 1901 the country’s population within its present bound- aries was only 238.4 million and has thus increased by 789 million in the past 100 years. Out of this increase, 85% has occurred during the second half of the century, i. e. l951—2001 and only 15% was added during the first half 1901-1951. This rapid growth of population since 1951 can be attributed to rapid reduc- tions in the death rates because of control of communicable diseases like small pox, cholera, plague, malaria and respiratory diseases and in this respect has to be viewed as a success. However, there are large interstate differen- tials in this achievement. If we consider the 1951 population of every state as 100, by 2001 the maximum growth was reached in Haryana at 290 followed by Rajasthan at 275 and the low- est growth rate was in Tamil Nadu at 185 and Kerala at 216. Since independence in 1947, when the population was 345 million, 700 mil- lion people has been added during the follow- ing 53 years. In this addition a larger propor- tion in relation to their population has been added in a fewer states, Bihar, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. As of today about 17.5 million people are added to the country of which a disproportionately larger number is contributed by the above five states. Thus, not only the population size in the country is large with over a billion people, but it is also adding currently over 18.5 million peo- ple every year, a disproportionately larger pro- portion of this increase coming from a few states in the north. K. Srinivasan, Emeritus Professor in International institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai. Vol.50, Special Issue — 2004
  • 2. Population and development TABLE 1 Time lag between Kerala and other states in selected demographic parameters in 2002 State / India CBR CDR IMR Time Lag fo Time Lag fo Time Lag for 2002 2002 2002 CBR CDR IMR Andhra Pradesh 20.7 8.1 62 14 25 32 Assam 26.6 9.2 70 27 31 35 Bihar 30.9 7.9 61 23 25 31 Gujarat 24.7 7.7 60 19 24 31 Haryana 26.6 7.1 62 27 23 30 Karnataka 22.1 7.2 55 17 23 26 Madhya Pradesh 30.4 9.8 85 30 32 38 Maharashtra 20.3 7.3 45 14 23 22 Orissa 23.2 9.8 87 18 32 39 Punjab 20.8 7.1 51 15 23 25 Rajasthan 30.6 7.7 78 24 24 37 Tamil Nadu 18.5 7.7 44 12 24 23 Uttar Pradesh 31.6 9.7 80 30 32 37 West Bengal 20.5 6.7 49 14 20 24 India 25.0 8.1 63 20 25 30 The rate of increase in the population since independence could have been higher but for a slow but steady decline in the birth rate, which was almost stagnant until early seventies in almost all the states. Since midst seventies, the birth rate started to decline initially slowly but with accel- erating momentum in the states of Goa, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Punjab and the fertility declining spell spreading across all the states since 1990. However, the pace of decline is still very slow in the large Hindi speaking states in the north—Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. The crude birth rate has declined in the country as awhole from 40.8 in 1951 to 25.0 in 2002 while the death rate has declined from 22.8 to 8.1 and thus the growth rate in these two years have remained almost unchanged with 1.80% in 1951 and 1.69% in 2002. However, the growth rate has gone through a process of increasing phase to a high ofalmost 2.2 per cent in the late seventies and early eighties and steadi- ly declining thereafter. This is awell—recognized process of demographic transition that occurred in all human populations. However, if we ana- lyze the transition by different states, there is a considerable time lag in the transition. The growth rate in the states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar -the states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Haryana continue to remain high. For e. g. in 2002 the birth rate of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh was 30.9, 30.4, 30.6 and 31.6, almost double the rates in Goa, Kerala, andTamil Nadu, which_was 14.0, 16.9 and 18.5 respectively. Because of the continuing high birth rates, the growth rate of the former three states in 2002 were 23.0, 20.6, 22.9 and 21.9 compared to 5.7, 10.5 and 10.8 per 1000 pop- ulation in the latter three which almost double. Infant mortality: trends and differentials. The infant mortality rate (IMR) defined as deaths of children below one year of age in a year per 1000 live births in that year is estimated for the year 2002 at 63 for the country as a whole and has declined from 140 in 1976, 119 in 1981, 105 in 1986 and 87 in 1991. It has * Estimate based on regression. Source: UN Human Development Report, 2004 ** Data for 1950-51, 60-61, 70-71 relate to population aged 5+ and data for 1980-81 and 1990-91 and 2000 *** 2001 relate to population aged 7+ The Journal of Family Welfare
  • 3. Population and development been hovering around 70-80 during the past decade but has started another decline since 1998. In 2002, the IMR values ranged from a high of 87 in Orissa, 85 in Madhya Pradesh, 80 in UP and 78 in Rajasthan to a low of 10 in Kerala, and 17 in Goa. Comparing the past trends in birth, death and infant mortality rates of Kerala with the current situation of these rates in different states the latter group of states are almost 25 years behind Kerala in demo- graphic transition. Table 1 provides data on birth, death and infant mortality rates for the fifteen bigger states of India and the years by which each state lags behind Kerala in these three parameters. The lag is highest in terms of infant mortality rate with an average of 30 years for the country as a whole, the highest being in Orissa at 39 years and the lowest (excluding Kerala) Tamil Nadu at 23 years. In terms of death rate the time lag for the coun- try as whole is 25 years and the maximum is in Madhya Pradesh and Orissa at 32 years and the minimum is in West Bengal at 20 years. On crude birth rate the time lag for the country as whole is 20 years with the maximum observed in Uttar Pradesh at 30 years and the minimum in Tamil Nadu at 12 years. While a few states are closing in on Kerala on the birth rate they are still far off with regard to infant mortality rate. Probably this is indicative of the greater emphasis placed on family planning pro- grammes compared to child survival pro- grammes in the country. However in all these three parameters most of the states are behind Kerala by almost a generation (25 years). Reproductive and child health The latest set of data co mpiled by the National Family Health Survey-2 and the Reproductive and Health Surveys conducted during 199 8-99 and 2000-01 reveal that the morbidity and mortality conditions among women associated with early marriage, poorly spaced and frequent pregnancies and child births are quite high though the conditions seem to be somewhat improving in recent years. The mortality among children still remain unacceptably high. The infant mortality rate in 2002 was 63 per 1000 live births ranging from a high of 87 in Orissa to a low of 10 in Kerala. According to NFHS-2, the proportion of births attended to by health professional at the time of delivery was only 42.5°/ o in the country as a whole rang- ing from 95% in Kerala to less than 30% in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The percent of ever married women with any anemia is as high as 52% in the country as a whole, ranging from a low of 23% in Kerala to over 60% in Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalya and Sikkim. The percent of children below three years of age with any anemia was also very high at 74% ranging from a low 44% in Kerala to over 75% in Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Maharashtra. It is ironical that the states of Punjab and Maharashtra with high percapita incomes and agricultural production have such high levels of anemia among children. TABLE 2 Trends in selected indicators, India CBR CDR IMR GNP at 93-94 Percupita Annual Female 3 prices in NNP at 93-94 growth Rate Literacy Rate Rs. (Crores) prices In of NNP Rs. (Crores) 1950-51 39.9 27.4 148 139912 3687.1 2.4 8.86 1960-61 41.7 22.8 138 205196 4429.4 7.0 15.35 1970-71 41.2 19.0 120 293933 5001.8 5.1 21.97 1980-81 37.2 15.0 110 401970 5352.2 7.5 29.76 1990-91 32.5 12.5 80 683670 7320.7 5.4 39.3 2000-01 25.8 8.5 63 1186246 10306.0 4.2 54.16 Vol.50, Special Issue - 2004 7
  • 4. Population and development India was the first country to launch an offi- cial programme of family planning as early as 1952 as a part of its first five-year plan. It has increased its investments in the programme from plan to plan and until 31st March 2001 and in 2000-01 approximately Rs. 15,000 crores have been spent. This family welfare pro- gramme is supposed to include various child sur- vival measures. The impact of these programmes on fertility seems to be lower than expected or targeted in every plan period, the impact on infant mortality rate is still lower. The demo- graphic goal of achieving a crude birth rate of 25 in the country as a whole was set in 1962 to be achieved by 1972, as a part of the third five- year plan but not achieved even by the end of the ninth five year plan. Social and economic development Development is broadly defined as the “process of-enhancing the capability and opportunity of individuals in the society so that they can reach their full potential of growth and contribu- tions’. Development includes education of individuals, economic well being, good health and opportunities for the individuals for fur- ther growth in these three dimensions. Income, education and health are the pivotal anchors of development for any society. India’s percapita GDP as assessed by the United Nations in 2002 was US$ 2,670* in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) and is placed at 127 among 177 countries surveyed. India is still considered as a Low Income Country in the world. Again, according to the United Nations the life expectancy at birth dur- ing 2002 is 63.7 years, adult literacy rate (15+) was 61.3 and the gross school enrolment ratio during 2001-2002 was 55%. The Adult Literacy Rate among those aged 15 and over is estimated at 75.85% for males and 54.16% for females in 2001.** For the first time since inde- pendence the absolute number of illiterates in the country among those aged 7 and above has come doWn from 328 million in the 1991 cen- sus to 296 million*** in the 2001 census, about 10% decline. Among females, the number has declined from 200 to 190 million, 5% decline. Still, India has at present the largest pool ofillit- erate population in any country of the world and its illiterate population; if in a separate country will be third largest country in the world. China, which had the same high levels of illiteracy rates in 1947, had virtually wiped out illiteracy by 1985. In terms of increase in GDP percapita, the country has fared poorly until the early nineties because of a closed and controlled economy. After liberalization of the economy in the late eighties, the growth has accelerated signifi- cantly and the country is currently one of those with the maximum rate of growth of GNP, though in absolute levels it still lags behind many other developing countries such as China, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Brazil etc. At 93-94 prices, the NNP (Net National Product) of the country increased from 2939 billion in 1970-71 to 6837 billion in 1990-91 and to 11,862 billion in 2000-01. While the GNP grew at an average of 4.1 % per year until 1992-93, it grew at 6 % per year in the 8th Plan period (1992-97). The per capita net national- product (NNP) grew at 2.1% per year until 1993-94 but grew at 4.1% from 1993-94 and at 4.6% in the Eighth Plan period (1992-97). On the whole, there has been a tremendous spurt in economic growth of the country since 1992-93. Table 2 gives the figures. In terms of reductions in absolute poverty, as well, India seems to have done well in the past decade. The proportion below the pover- ty line in India is estimated on the basis of the number of households with percapita house- hold consumption expenditure on food items below a certain level. This level is determined on the basis of cost of food items required to meet the minimum calorie needs of the family members. The procedure called the head count ratio method (HCP) that measures absolute a poverty, has also been declining over the years; quite slowly until the ‘late ‘eighties but rapidly thereafter. According to the Planning Commission estimates it was 48.0% in 1977- 78, 37.0°/ o during 1983-84, 30.0% during 1987-88, and 26.10/0 during 1997-98. The Journal of Family Welfare
  • 5. Population and development TABLE 3 Trends in human development State / India 1981 1981 1991 1991 2001 2001 Value Rank Value Rank Value Rank Andhra Pradesh 0.298 9 0.377 9 0.416 10 Assam 0.272 10 0.348 10 0.386 14 Bihar 0.237 15 0.308 15 0.367 15 Guiorot 0.360 4 0.431 6 0.479 6 Horyono 0.360 5 0.443 5 0.509 5 Kornatako 0.346 6 0.412 7 0.478 7 Kerolo 0.500 1 0.591 1 0.638 1 Madhya Pradesh 0.245 14 0.328 13 0.394 12 Maharashtra 0.363 3 0.452 4 0.523 4 Orissa 0.267 11 0.345 12 0.404 11 Punjab 0.411 2 0.475 2 0.537 2 Roiosthon 0.256 12 0.347 11 0.424 9 Tamil Nadu 0.343 7 0.466 3 0.531 3 Uttctr Pradesh 0.255 13 0.314 14 0.388 13 West Bengal 0.305 8 0.404 8 0.472 8 India 0.302 0.381 0.472 There are, however, wide disparities among the states both at income levels as well as in lit- eracy rates. As per the 2001 census the literacy rates among those aged 7 and over has varied from a high of 91% in Kerala and 88% in Mizoram to a low of 54% in Jharkhand and 48% in Bihar. Among females it varied from a high of88% in Kerala and 86% in Mizoram to a low of again 39% in Jharkhand and 34% in Bihar. The per capita net State Domestic Product (SDP) in 2000-01 at current prices var- ied from Rs. 25,048 in Punjab to Rs. 5,108 in Bihar. The variations in income levels are larg- er than in the educational levels. Table 3 gives the state-wise details. The United Nations proposed in 1991 an index called the Human Development index (HDI) which combines the per capita income measured at an internationally comparable measure called PPP (or Purchasing Power Parity), indicators of health measured by life expectancy and infant mortality, and education in terms of school attendance ratios at elemen- tary, middle and secondary levels. It varies from 0 to 1 and all the countries, developed as well as developing, have been ranked on this meas- ure. India has for the year 2002 an HDI value of0.595 and is ranked 127th among 177 coun- Vol.50, Special Issue - 2004 tries by the United Nations. In addition to the publication ofthis measure at the national level for 177 countries by the United Nations, the Planning Commission has been publishing equivalent index values using the same variables (with some modifications) at the state level for the country using the data from the censuses of 1991 and 2001. The Human development Index (HDI) has shown considerable improve- ment in all the states during the last two decades 1981-91-2001. The I-IDI in 2001 varies from a high of0.638 in Kerala to a low 0.367 in Bihar The maximum increase in HDI values and improvement in relative ranking is observed in Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and the maximum deterioration is found in Assam. Table 4 gives the state-wise details. Linkages between fertility levels and development There seems to be a strong negative correlation between the human developm-ent and fertili- ty and mortality levels with both these declin- ing with human development. Taking states as units and considering only the bigger fifteen states, five parameters, crude birth rate (CBR), crude death rate (CDR), infant mortality rate (IMR) per capita Net State Domestic Product
  • 6. Population and development (NS DP), female literacy rate and the HDI val- ues for the years 2001 or 2002 for which latest data are available. Ranks were given from 1 to 15, 1 for the best state with most desirable level of the parameter an 15 representing the worst condition. Since the absolute values on the parameters have an unspecified margin of error due to sampling and non—sampling factors it was decided to carry out the analysis on the Among the six variables considered, female literacy is the one that can be directly influ- enced by government policy and programmes and fortunately this variable is associated strongly with all the other six variables of social, economic and demographic development. This is seen from the Figurel. There is a close cor- respondence of all the six factors with female literacy. The states with high rank in female lit- TABLE 4 Rank Order Correlation matrix of bigger states by selected developmental indicators CBR CDR 1 CBR CDR .507 1 IMR .789“ .754** Per capita NSDP at .600* .711** current prices in Rs. (crores) Female Literacy Rate .879“ .664“ HDI Rank .732“ .75o** basis of the ranks rather than on the absolute values. A chart giving the ranks of the states on these six parameters is given in Figure I. It can be seen from the chart that most of the states have almost the same ranks in all the six parameters and wherever there is departure from commonality it is with regard to state NDP values. All the social development param— eters seem to go together. The states which have a high female literacy rates have also signifi- cantly high HDI values and lower fertility and mortality levels. Table 5 gives the zero order correlation coefficients of the six variables. Since all the variable are arranged in order of best to worst (1 to 15) all the correlation coefficients are positive as expected and all the coefficients are significant at 5% level except the one between CBR and CDR. 10 Percapita in Rs. (Crores) IMR Female HDI NSDP at curren Literacy Rank prices Rate 1 .657“ 1 .846“ .775“ 1 .746** .914” .843” 1 eracy rate are also likely to have ranks in the other five parameters. The correspondence is relatively weak for crude death rate and the state domestic product. For example, the correlation coefficient between the ranks of I-IDI and CBR is 0.732 significant at 1% level. Female litera- cy rate has the maximum correlations with the crude birth rate (0.879) and the infant mortal- ity rate (0.846). Thus female literacy seems to be an important variable for economic, social and demographic development ofthe country. Summary In recent years since the late eighties, there has been substantial improvements in the Indian economy both in terms increase in percapita income and in terms of reductions in poverty. However, India is still classified as a poor country in the comity of nations with The Journal of Family Welfare
  • 7. Population and development FIGURE1 Ranking of states on selected demographic indicators, circa 2002 12$ 10: 5° ‘59 ‘by ‘<50 A ‘ '4) <9 0'5‘ of -45» 9° ex; -of +90 of 6‘s% <2"° of 0*‘? (<~"’ $5’? ifif <5’ <0“ 0° 4,49 Q49 ‘7’ <3’ «'9 9‘ ~l-'” T‘ (sq Q Q5” qt $3’ st? Ysgfi‘ by? 9* Q‘ ‘ CBR ——O~ODR——e——IvR—)It—-SDP—Z-Fenale literacy —-—--HDI The states are arranged by female literacy rate, highest to lowest-rank 1 to 15 almost 260 million people below the poverty line with an income of. less than 139 per per— son per day. Thus, India has within its bound- aries the largest number of absolutely poor people in the world. There have also been sig— nificant improvements in the literacy levels of males and females and in the enrolment of children in schools. However, India contin- ues to have the largest pool of illiterate pop- ulation for any country in the world. In terms of demographic parameters India’s life expectancy has increased substantially during the past three decades but India still has a very high infant mortality rate above 80 in states that comprise more than 40% of the popula- tion. There are a large number of maternal deaths in the country, the highest in the world with a maternal mortality ratio of 450 per 100,000 live births. In both the number of infant deaths and maternal deaths, India ranks number one in the comity of nations well below China though the latter has 20% more population than India. The population growth in India continues to remain high inspire of moderate decline in fertility because of three major factors: Vol.50, Special Issue - 2004 1) Large numbers as well as large proportion coming to the reproductive age—group because of past high fertility, this is called population momentum factor. 2) A large percent of unmet need for contraception, estimated at 20% of all married couples at reproductive age. 3) A large proportion of girls getting married at young ages, well below the minimum legal age for marriage. The demographic profile of the population is also unique from many countries in the world in that it has a low sex ratio of females per 1000 males and a low and further declining juvenile sex ratio of girls. Despite uniform norms for health care, infrastructure and facilities by the central government for health and family plan— ning programs, substantial difference has emerged between the states in achieving demo- graphic goals in terms of infant mortality, expectation oflife and fertility. These inter—state differentials are attributable to the commit- ment and the efficiency of the state govern- ments to these programs and to improving female literacy, which has been grossly neglect- ed in many states like Bihar, UP, and Raj asthan. 11
  • 8. Population and development This analysis reveals that there is a close cor- respondence between increase in female literacy rates and declines in fertility and infant mortali- ty rates. Improvements in the economic condi- tions of a state depends on a number of factors of governance and prudent investments but the economic development is facilitated by declines in fertility and mortality levels because of changes in the age distributions of population reducing the child dependency ratios. Both in terms of demographic parameters, female literacy rates and human development index, the 7 states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, Chattisgarh and jharkhand accounting for 44% of India’s population and 55% of the potential increase in the population, lag behind the rest of the country considerably and these future improvements in will the trends of development and demographic profile of the country. The cutting edge seems to be improve- ments in female literacy rates in addition to programmes for generation of employment and investments in the developmental sectors. While the rest of the country has taken off, as such, in the developmental and demographic states largely determine arena, these seven states pose real challenges to the nation. 12 Acknowledgment The author wishes to acknowledge and thank Sri. Purujit Praharaj, Research officer for his assistance in the analysis of data and editing of the paper. REFERENCES 1. 6. Census of India 2001, Final Population Totals. Directorate of Census, New Delhi. Government of India. Economic Survey Report. Ministry of Finance, Economic Division, New Delhi, 2004. Government of India. National Human Development Report. Planning Commission, Government of India, 2001. International Institute for Population sciences. National Family Health Survey-I (1992-93). International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, 1995. International Institute for Population sciences. National Family Health Survey-II (1998-99). International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, 2001. UNDP (2004). Human Development Report. United Nations Development Programme, United Nations. The Journal of Family Welfare

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