Press statement (english) Ipsos Tanzania september 2015
Ipsos’ 3rd Quarter SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Survey:
Published on: Mar 4, 2016
Transcripts - Press statement (english) Ipsos Tanzania september 2015
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
September 24, 2015
Quarter SPEC (Social, Political,
Economic and Cultural) Survey:
The Social Political, Cultural and Economic Survey is a Quarterly survey is an internally
funded survey by Ipsos, and is used to give information to the public on different topical
issues in the country. This particular survey sampled 1,836 was conducted between 05th
September 2015, at the household level in all the regions within the Tanzania Mainland.
1) A number of major unmet development challenges awaits the next government of
Tanzania, whoever wins this election.
2) The fact that in not a single one of these policy-areas does a clear majority (i.e.,
more than 50%) express such confidence in the either party suggests why this
election could be the most competitive since the country restored multi-party
3) Overall, about twice as many Tanzanians identify themselves as supporters of CCM
as opposed to Chadema, However a substantial minority prefer not to self-identify as
supporters of any political party.
4) At the time of the survey, CCM’s J. Magufuli enjoyed nearly a 2-1 (62% vs 31%)
advantage over his main (Chadema/Ukawa) rival, E. Lowassa. However, the margin
between them was less than the proportion of respondents who were either
“undecided” or who would not reveal their choice. This means that campaign
activities taking place in the remaining period between now and the election could
have a significant impact on the actual outcome of the election.
5) While enjoying a significant lead over his main opponent across various segments of
the population, the CCM candidate has a stronger appeal among women and rural
dwellers than among men and urbanites. The same applies in terms of age, with
older people more ‘comfortable’ with CCM.
A. The Development Agenda
1. Tanzanians are in broad agreement about the main problems facing the country, with
those reflecting basic poverty by far the most frequently mentioned: the cost-of-living,
hunger, water supply, agricultural productivity, etc.
2. This is confirmed with the nearly-universal presence of poverty that respondents say
exists within their localities (89%), with only minimal improvement in urban as
opposed to rural areas (89% vs. 95%).
3. Likewise, such basic development inputs as infrastructure and health services are
Tanzanians’ highest priorities to address poverty.
B. Pre-Election Orientations: Issues, Political Parties and Candidates
1. At the time of the survey, about three-quarters of (adult) Tanzanians self-identified
with any political party (78%), and almost as many reported that they had made up
their minds about whom they intend to vote for (73%). At the same time, a significant
minority stated that it was either “very likely” (11%) or “somewhat likely” (7%) that
they would vote for a different presidential candidate on October 25.
2. In terms of 7 main development-policy areas (e.g., infrastructure, education, health
care, etc.), about twice as many Tanzanians expressed confidence in CCM to
“manage” them as opposed to Chadema/the opposition, with no statistical contrasts
between the proportion of responses on any of them.
3. Such a distribution mirrors almost exactly the division of support between the main
political parties, with supporters of CCM twice as many as those of the main
opposition party, Chadema (60% vs. 29%),
4. Again, at the time of the survey, CCM’s J. Magufuli enjoyed nearly twice as much
support from those who had already made up their minds as the opposition’s E.
Lowassa (62% vs. 31%).
5. There are significant differences in the proportions of the advantage the CCM
candidate enjoys in terms of the two demographic variables of gender (male/female)
and setting (urban/rural). Regarding the first, while his support-lead over his main
opposition challenger is only about 17% among men, it rises to nearly 30% among
women. Similarly, among rural dwellers it amounts to about 20%, but is 5% lower
among urbanites (15%; who are also likely to be made up of more men than women).
6. Likewise, older Tanzanians remain supportive of CCM, there being a significant
difference in the level of support it receives from the younger (adult) age group and
7. With a full month remaining until election day, it is significant that only two-thirds
state of those who expressed a presidential candidate preference state that it is
“unlikely” that they will change their current presidential candidate vote-preference
(70%), leaving another one-third whose current choice might change between now
and October 25.
The target population for this survey was Tanzanians aged 18 years and above, of
whom 1,836 living in urban and rural areas in the Tanzania mainland were
interviewed The margin-of-error attributed to sampling and other random effects is
+/- 2.3 with a 95% confidence level. For demographic details, see the accompanying
Fieldwork was conducted between 5th
September 2015. Data was
collected through face-to-face interviews using hand-held devices (smart phones).
IMPORTANT POINTS FOR MEDIA/READERS:
1. THIS SURVEY COULD NOT DETERMINE WHO AMONG ALL RESPONDENTS
WOULD ACTUALLY GO TO THEIR POLLING STATIONS AND VOTE ON
OCTOBER 25. GIVEN PAST HISTORY WHERE VOTER TURN-OUT RATES
VARY ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THE RESULTS OF THIS POLL CANNOT BE
USED TO PREDICT THE ACTUAL RESULT, EVEN IF THE ELECTION ITSELF
WERE HELD TOMORROW.
2. GIVEN THE LENGTH OF THE PERIOD UNTIL OCTOBER 25 AND THE VERY
ACTIVE CAMPAIGNING CURRENTLY UNDERWAY, THERE IS NO CERTAINTY
THAT THE RESULTS OBTAINED IN THIS SURVEY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY.
For further clarification or comments, please contact:
Charles Makau Dr. Tom Wolf
Country Head: Ipsos Tanzania Research Analyst
+ 255 22 277 5851 / 277 5628
+ 255 22 277 5851 / 277 5628