Published on: Mar 3, 2016
Transcripts - NARUC
The Myth of Carbon Pollution
National Association of Regulatory
July 23, 2013
CO2 has been demonized
because it allegedly causes
Catastrophic Global Warming !
• In fact, observations indicate that the warming from
more CO2 is much less than predicted by models.
• The modest warming from more CO2 will be beneficial,
and crop yields will increase substantially.
• Greening of the planet is already being observed.
If the sky
seems to be
for the fox!
“Decarbonize“ the world!
But the Gretchenfragen are
1.If CO2 is held constant,
at any level, will the
climate stop changing?
2. What is the optimum
Level of CO2?
Gretchen and Faust in the Garden
“Tout est pour le mieux en le meilleur des mondes”
What is the “best of worlds” with
respect to CO2?
150 ppm – plants stop growing?
280 ppm – Candide’s preindustrial
“Garden of Eden”?
400 ppm– present value?
1000—2000 ppm – phanerozoic
A Previous Great Leap Forward
People’s Republic of China 1958-1961
Leap Forward to a Carbon-Free USA?
Earth is almost always warming or cooling
From John Muir's notes about his first visit to
Glacier Bay in October, 1879.
“Glacier Bay is undoubtedly young as yet.
Vancouver's chart, made only a century
ago, shows no trace of it, though found
admirably faithful in general. It seems
probable, therefore, that even then the entire
bay was occupied by a glacier of which all those
described above, great though they are, were
John Muir, first President of
The Sierra Club
From “Travels in Alaska, Chapter X”
A substantial warming trend began about 200 years ago, long
before there was much CO2 from fossil fuels.
CO2 really is Increasing. Some of the increase is from burning fossil fuels
Compared to the levels of CO2 that prevailed since
the Cambrian, we have been in a CO2 famine
in recent geological times.
A NASA Website
2349 cm -1
frequency too high for
666 cm -1 (Satan’s number)
no changing dipole moment,
no absorption or emission
The CO2 Molecule is similar to a (tumbling) xylophone bar
• Greenhouse warming from CO2, water vapor, H20, and clouds
keeps the earth warm enough to sustain abundant life.
• More CO2 will cause more warming.
• The key question is how much warming.
• Most models predict warming T = 0.3 C for past 15 years due
to CO2 increase from about 370 ppm to 400 ppm
• Observed: T = 0 C or perhaps slight cooling.
• Something is rotten in the state of climate modeling!
Der Spiegel, Jan. 2013
Klimawandel: Forscher rätseln über Stillstand bei Erderwärmung
Mail Online, March 18
•After a long pause, or slight decline from the dust bowl maximima
of the 1930’s, temperatures started to rise rapidly in the 1980’s.
•Temperatures have been stable since about 1998, although CO2 levels
have continued to rise.
Satellite temperature measurements of
lower atmosphere show little warming
The discrepancy between models and observations is even greater in the
tropical mid-troposphere, where rate of warming should be greatest!
More CO2 will be a very significant
benefit to agriculture!
Experimental Plots for Measuring Response to CO2 Enrichment
Source: Idso, C.D. and Idso, K.E. 2000. Technology 7 (suppl): 33-56
Typical sales pitch: “CO2 enrichment at 2, 3, and 4 times natural concentration
will cause plants to grow faster and improve plant quality. … The **** generator
automatically provides the carbon dioxide to meet maximum growing potential.”
Cost < $1000 plus cost of propane.
CO2 Enrichment of Greenhouses
Global Greening From CO2 Fertilization: 1982-2010
Increase = 11% in areas studied
Donohue et al, GRL (June 2013) DOI: 10.1002/grl.50563
Source: United States Department of Agriculture
India Wheat Production: Doomsayers vs. Doers
Norman Borlaug Becomes Director of
International Wheat Improvement Program About 15% of the increased yield is from
more CO2. Better varieties, fertilizer, etc.
account for the rest.
GLENDOWER = CO2: The heavens were all on fire, the earth did tremble.
HOTSPUR: O, then the earth shook to see the heavens on fire,
And not in fear of your nativity.
Diseased nature oftentimes breaks forth
In strange eruptions; oft the teeming earth
Is with a kind of colic pinch'd and vex'd
By the imprisoning of unruly wind
Within her womb; which, for enlargement striving,
Shakes the old beldam earth and topples down
Steeples and moss-grown towers. At your birth
Our grandam earth, having this distemperature,
In passion shook.
Extreme Weather From More CO2?
Henry IV, Part I, ~ 1597
There has been no increase in extreme weather!
G.R.L. Byrne et al., discussed by:
Direct measurement of
ocean pH on a cruise
from Hawaii to Alaska
The latest scare story
G.R.L., Byrne et al. as discussed by:
pH of ocean along cruise route
Sea Level: It is rising at about the same rate as always!
• More CO2 will significantly increase
agricultural productivity, especially for
• The warming from doubled CO2 will
be small, around 1 C, and beneficial.
• Since more CO2 is beneficial, costly
mitigation schemes are harmful.
“All truth passes through
three stages. First it is
ridiculed, second it is
violently opposed, and
third it is accepted as
• The truth, that CO2 is not harmful but is actually
good for the planet, is somewhere between the
stages of ridicule and violent opposition.